No Rs - But Ts, Ts, Ts!

As the days continue to slip by with no sightings of the Southern Residents (since J-Pod last departed on June 1st), this year is beginning to feel more and more like the summer of 2013 when the Southern Residents were conspicuous only their absence. Despite the fact that we keep hoping for reports of the whales returning to inland waters, the lack of sightings should come as no surprise. Not only are we one 4-year salmon cycle from the dismal year of 2013, but one glance at the Chinook salmon test catch data for the Fraser River shows how low the numbers are. They've been doing regular test catches since the end of April and in all that time have caught less than 10 fish - it's a jaw-droppingly low number.

All we can do is hope they're finding food wherever they are hanging out and continue to advocate for what these whales need - more fish. In the meantime, it's impossible not to enjoy our new neighbors, the transient killer whales. Whether by coincidence or not, as the Southern Residents have become more scarce, the transients have become more abundant, and the last week in particular has been phenomenal. At the Orca Behavior Institute we've had six encounters with them in the last five days.

On June 7th, a large group of transients headed across Haro Strait and as they headed north one group broke off from the rest - the T2Cs. These are a fascinating family group for several reasons. For one, they're descendants of the famous marine mammal-eating whale T2 Florencia, who along with T1 Charlie Chin ate fish after 79 days of starvation in captivity. They had already been sold to marine aquariums when someone lowered their nets and freed them in the middle of the night. Secondly, T2C Tasu is the mother of four living offspring, including T2C2 Tumbo who is a twelve year-old male with scoliosis. 

One of the youngest members of the regional transient killer whale population - calf T2C4

His survival to this point, despite obvious physical deformation, is a testament both to his will to live and the altruism shown by his family. He is regularly seen trailing slowly behind the rest of his matriline, as he was when we encountered them. But when we saw them stop to make a kill, he came to join them in the feasting.

The T2Cs on the hunt

T2C2, the male orca with a deformed spine, did not participate in the hunt, but did come over for the feeding

The hunt itself was an amazing thing to watch as my best guess is that the T2Cs pinned a harbor seal on the bottom, as after an extended time of surfacing and diving together, they started diving in alternate pairs, possibly to drown the seal while they took turns breathing. They were circling in the same spot for a long time and it was impossible to tell which way they would end up traveling; when they continued on their way, we were lucky enough to get a close pass. We know cognitively that orcas are big animals, but it hits you in a different way when you see one dwarf you and your boat:

A close pass from T2C Tasu

T2C1 Rocky and calf T2C4

On a couple of days, we've also gotten to see the T65As off the west side of San Juan Island, and in both cases they spent time in resting formation. This shot was taken from Land Bank in the rain, which along with the calm waters made for a memorable encounter.

The T65As resting in Haro Strait

On the morning of June 9th, word came in of a large group of inbound whales heading for San Juan Island. My first thought was, "Residents?!" I luckily got to the west side right as the whales did, and for 15 minutes had a magical moment where there were no boats on scene and no people with me on the shoreline as they approached.

A big group of whales, close to shore rounding Edwards Point, surfacing a lot and milling - I thought it might be residents, until I got a look at the dorsal fin on this male on the left (click to see a larger version with all his notches):

Not only was this not a Southern Resident, this was a whale I knew right away I had never seen before! Turns out it was T170, a rarely encountered orca. I heard this ID while the whales were still in sight, but who were all the other whales with them? For the moment, it didn't matter, and I just took in the tranquil morning encounter.

Later though, of course I did want to know who all was there. My friend and OBI partner Sara and I spent some time pouring over the transient photo ID catalogues, and were able to identify both some more common local visitors in the T36As and T49C as well as some more "exotic" whales in T172, T117A, and T117B. The T117s in particular were tough to figure out. As far as I know, they've never been seen here in local waters, and have changed a fair amount since their ID photos in the 2012 version of the catalog I have. For one, T117A was thought to be a female and now has a fin sprout! Here's a comparison of their ID catalog photos and my heavily cropped photos of them from June 9th to give you an idea of how we figured out who they were.

T117A: broad fin, "dent" on the front edge of the fin, skinny left side of saddle patch
T117B: Nick at the top of fin, "bump" on saddle patch with unique shape

It was a fun puzzle to solve, and it's always exciting to "meet" some new whales! They were going slow enough that I ran from Land Bank to Lime Kiln, but unfortunately by the time they got there they had pulled way offshore. They continued north throughout the day, and while the "regulars" hung around for the next day, the "exotics" kept on going north and out of the Salish Sea.

That doesn't mean the T encounters were over, however! The T2Cs seemingly took up residence in San Juan Channel for 3 days, and last night, on June 10th, we headed out for an evening encounter near Waldron Island. 

T2C1 Rocky

The whales were slowly moving north and the lighting was gorgeous. Again, T2C2 Tumbo, the male with scoliosis, was trailing behind the rest of his family. It tugged at the heart strings for sure when, on a couple of occasions, his big brother T2C1 Rocky broke off from the others and came over to spend some time with him.

Brothers T2C2 Tumbo (left) and T2C1 Rocky (right)

The other three whales went over to harass some seals hauled out on a small rocky outcropping. I don't know how shallow it was right there, but it was amazing how close the whales were able to get to the seals - close enough to scare the gulls off the rocks! One seal even panicked and slipped into the water, but amazingly the whales, who seemed like they could have practically grabbed the seals right off their haul out, seemed to move on without eating anything.

Scary moment for some harbor seals on a small rock (left) as T2C3 Lucy moved away from them

As the sun sank towards the horizon it was hard to leave, as the lighting just got more magical.

T2C1 Rocky

One of my favorite shots of the night - the T2Cs under a sundog

Eventually, we did turn south and head home to port as the whales headed north towards Canadian waters. The boat ride home was gorgeous and I couldn't help but wonder, "What will the next week bring?"

CALF IV Workshop

Last weekend we held our fourth CALF (Community Action - Look Forward) workshop on San Juan Island. The purpose of these workshops is to come together to brainstorm grassroots ways we as citizens can help advocate for more Chinook salmon for our Southern Resident Killer Whales, especially as we feel in many cases our governments are not doing enough. After last week's election results and what they likely mean for environmental protection in the next four years, it felt like a key time to be in a room with 50+ other activists. Needless to say, there was a lot to talk about.

My favorite slide of the day, courtesy of Michael O'Leary

The day included talks about current salmon issues on the Columbia-Snake and Fraser River basins, as well as breakout discussions to discuss next steps. I wanted to share what I took away as they key actions we can take for those who weren't able to attend the workshop...

NEPA Public Comment Period 

In May a judge ruled against the federal recovery plan for Columbia River Chinook salmon for the fourth time, specifically requesting that new approaches such as considering dam removal are taken. Federal agencies were ordered to prepare an environmental impact statement (EIS) to support an updated Biological Opinion (BiOp). Currently, there is a public comment period on what the scope of the EIS should be. You can read the bulletin about the process here and find more info here.

• Submit public comments online here. Some points to include are:
• The public hearings are a disappointment in that they are not allowing for any public discourse - it's more looking at posters and typing comments on a computer than actually having your voice be heard. We have until December 1st to request that actual public hearings be held, and that the comment period is extended by 60 days to add additional meetings in places like Friday Harbor, Bellingham, and Tri-Cities. 
• There is already an extensive EIS in place that was published in 2002; we're wasting time by putting several years into developing another one. Ask that the existing EIS be used instead.
• This is our chance to loudly voice that orcas need to be considered when looking at Chinook salmon recovery on the Columbia River and that removal of the four Lower Snake River dams should be seriously considered.

•  If possible, attend the December 1 public meeting in Seattle. A group of orca advocates are holding a rally starting at 4 PM and will all go over to the Town Hall together. Meet at One Union Square, 6th and University, in Seattle. 

Columbia and Fraser River Chinook: Overharvested in Alaska

One major issue Chinook are facing is that mixed stocks are heavily harvested in Alaska, meaning that in all likelihood there is over-harvesting of Fraser and Columbia River Chinook. These harvest limits need to be re-evaluated; wild Alaskan salmon isn't as sustainable as we thought it was.

• The Pacific Salmon Treaty is a US-Canada agreement under the Pacific Salmon Commission which focuses on conservation and equitable harvest of all Pacific salmon, with different chapters to consider different species and stocks. They are currently reviewing the status of Chinook salmon. Contact them and ask for the commissioners to address the Alaska fisheries management issue and consider Southern Resident Killer Whales when looking at Chinook salmon recovery. 
• Contact the Seafood Watch Card program from the Monterey Bay Aquarium and ask them to reconsider labeling all wild Alaskan salmon as a sustainable option.
• In Canada, contact Watershed Watch about ways to volunteer and get involved in Fraser River salmon recovery. 

Dealing with the Reality of a Trump Administration   

• We're lucky to live in a progressive region - let's focus on what our state's can accomplish with regards to climate change, oil spill response, habitat recovery, etc. People are ready to be mobilized and we can become a leader in how these issues should be handled
• This is a time to build relationships - we need to look for all the allies we can, including in unconventional places. Let's attend the meetings of tribes, farmers, fishermen, etc. and listen to what they're talking about and find our common ground when it comes to salmon recovery, with the goal of having a CALF workshop representing multiple interest groups.
• Make monthly donations to organizations that advocate for environmental protection and will take to court anyone who breaks our environmental laws. NRDC and Earthjustice in particular are good choices. 

We can't become complacent - we must keep watch and keep fighting the good fight!

SRKW CALF (Community Action Looking Forward) Workshop

This past weekend there were two great workshops held on back to back days in Friday Harbor, and a few people who weren't able to attend have asked me to post a summary, so I thought I might as well do that here!

The first workshop, on Friday the 24th, was the annual naturalist gear-down hosted by The Whale Museum. Part of it was a precursor to Saturday's workshop, and I was asked to present some of the whale and salmon data that I've posted on my blog. (You can see all the blog posts in that series here.) After showing some of my graphs, we had a discussion about the links between whales and salmon. A couple of points that were raised: Dawn Noren of NOAA said the orca and salmon departments within the agency do talk to each other, Sharon Grace emphasized that the biggest challenge to salmon recovery is agribusiness being able to buy water rights away from salmon, and Jeanne Hyde pointed out that we need to start taking more real action rather than just talking about acting.

Saturday was a workshop called Southern Resident Killer Whale CALF (Community Action Looking Forward). The idea for the workshop started after the April orca-salmon recovery workshop in Seattle, when it became apparent that the government agencies aren't going to solve the issue of the whales getting enough fish, and that we as citizens need to do something.

The day started off with a joint presentation by Eva Saulitis and Craig Matkin, who study orcas in Prince William Sound, Alaska. They're witnessing the extinction of a distinct population known as the AT1 transients, who haven't born any calves since the Exxon-Valdez oil spill and currently number only 7 whales. It was an emotional presentation, I think made even more so as we realized our Southern Residents are at a tipping point, and that before too long we could be in a position to watch something similar unfold here. This heart-wrenching story is documented beautifully by Eva in her book Into Great Silence. Eva's advice to us: "People are going to have to get radical and incredibly outspoken to give the Southern Residents a chance." Craig added: "The numbers just grind you down, but the heart keeps you going....you have to have the heart and the science to get anything done."

It was also interesting to hear them talk about how different how both salmon management and salmon culture are in Alaska. Salmon management is a fairly simple affair, by their description, with fewer parties involved. And the culture? "Salmon are like gold" - a concept we need to embrace in the rest of the Pacific Northwest, as well.

Ken Balcomb gave a brief talk showing some Southern Resident population numbers, emphasizing in particular that the population increases and decreases have been driven primarily by L-Pod, with Js and Ks holding relatively stable over the years. One interesting point he made: Chinook salmon are the only endangered species that the government gives people the right to kill. This is because our management schemes are driven by economics, and salmon are economically important. What we need to be successful is ecological management, with the ecological importance of salmon emphasized.

The main portion of the afternoon was everyone splitting up into three groups: science, education, and action. The goal was for each group to identify what could be done within their purview to advance salmon recovery for the orcas. I was one of the facilitators for the science group, where we focused mostly on data gaps and where more information is needed. Each group had time to brainstorm ideas, discuss them, and prioritize them, then we came back to share them to the group as a whole.

Cindy Hansen will be writing up the ideas shared with the whole group in detail and sending them via e-mail to everyone who was in attendance. If you want to be on this e-mail list even though you weren't there, please contact here at cindy@whalemuseum.org - you will also get announcements about future meetings, etc. I'll just summarize a bit of what was shared here.

Research: One of the major things that needs to happen is to help make existing data more accessible. A lot of the questions people have are about things that have been studied, but much of this information is not easy available. As far as data gaps go, some of the major things we identified were the reason for low survival among juvenile salmon in the Salish Sea (see the Salish Sea Marine Survival Project for more - this issue is beginning to be addressed on a wide scale); the lack of knowledge about winter diet of the Southern Residents; the population status of local forage fish; and an inventory of regional streams where on the ground restoration efforts are needed.

Education: They suggested the idea of linking orca adoption to stream adoption - if you adopt an orca, with it could be information about a stream in your watershed that supports salmon and needs restoration help, further establishing the connections between where we live and the whales. More presence about the issues in the media and on social media could be helpful, with Granny as an iconic "spokeswhale" a la Smokey the Bear relating to the forest fire message. They also mentioned that next summer's Superpod gathering on San Juan Island will focus on salmon so that will be a big opportunity for education.

Action: We need to get orcas/salmon a larger lobbying group politically, perhaps crowd funded. The battle of water rights for salmon needs to be fought - and if necessary the economic value of wild salmon and wild orcas can be further expressed to legislative groups. All like-minded groups should be brought together to speak the same message collectively to have the most effect. Links between orca/salmon health and human health can also be further emphasized.

As you can see, research, education, and action are all very inter-linked. For now, each group has a few volunteer members that will continue over the winter to discuss was the next steps can be based on the ideas generated at the workshop. Then, in the spring (likely April), we will all convene again as a larger group to talk about taking these next steps. It was also stressed that it will be important to bring at least invite other interest groups in at this point, too, such as commercial, sport, and tribal fishermen.

The task is undoubtedly a monumental one - trying to make sure the Southern Residents get enough fish to eat. But we have to do something. It's a bit cliche, but I'm always reminded in moments like these of Margaret Mead's famous quote:

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."

We just have to go out and prove it.

Southern Residents and Chinook Salmon: An Undeniable Link

As another summer whale-watching season winds down here in the San Juan Islands, it's an appropriate time to reflect on how these whales are doing. Last year, we had an all-time low in both salmon numbers and whale visits to inland waters, that left many of us wondering what this year would bring. There was an undeniable sense of relief that we had the Southern Residents around a lot this year- no more stretches of days and weeks without whales as we experienced in 2013. Still, despite some proclaiming that this summer was "just like the good ol' days", it really wasn't. While the number of whale days spent in inland waters was certainly up, the amount of pod-fractioning hit an all-time high. We had different groups of partial pods around on almost a daily basis for a while. Yes, there were whales around to watch on most days this summer - but often it was a group of a dozen or twenty whales, rather than 40 or 50 whales or all 79 together in a superpod (by my unofficial count, we only had all matrilines of all three pods in inland waters at the same time on three days this summer). Additionally, while we celebrated the birth of L120 this summer, we also experienced yet another year where deaths outnumbered births, and L120's arrival ended the longest drought in births ever documented, with 25 months having passed since J49 was born.

So, to put it simply: this year was better, but all is not well.

Average Albion catch per unit effort (CPUE) on the Fraser River for Chinook salmon for June 1 through August 31 from 1980 to 2014. Here I'm using the average CPUE as a metric for how many salmon are returning to the Fraser River during the summer months, when Fraser Chinook are the predominant prey item for Southern Residents. From this graph you can see that 2014 was the best year of the last four (fish hatched in 2010 returned this year), but that numbers are still severely depressed from historic counts.

Not surprisingly, the number of whales we see in inland waters is directly (and significantly) correlated to how the Fraser River Chinook salmon are doing.

Number of whales in inland waters (considered east of Sooke, BC) from June 1 - August 31 of this year compared to same-day Albion catch per unit effort (CPUE) numbers for Chinook salmon on the Fraser River. There is a statistically significant correlation between these two variables (ANOVA, p = .01)

Finally it seems that, at least among the general public, salmon is the hot topic issue surrounding these whales. In the past, attention has focused on proposed vessel regulations or controversial research techniques, but now more than ever it seems like people are being educated about, and are talking about, the fact that the age-old adage is true: no fish, no blackfish. With this increased attention on the issue that really matters, NOAA has been under further scrutiny as the agency that is tasked with developing and implementing a recovery plan for the Southern Residents as part of their listing under the Endangered Species Act.

This spring there was an orca and salmon recovery workshop in Seattle, which I attended. Perhaps the most astonishing thing to me was the apparent lack of communication between the so-called "whale people" and "salmon people". Several of the salmon specialists who spoke mentioned how exciting it was to be talking to someone different - namely all the people present who were there from the "whale side". I had heard about the phenomenon of scientists working within the "silos" of their particular disciplines or sub-disciplines, but never was it more apparent to me than at that workshop. Here we have two species whose recovery plans are undeniably interlinked, yet it seemed like the two groups responsible for those species weren't working together. I'm certainly paraphrasing here, but the message I heard from the orca management side is that when it comes to the prey recovery portion of the killer whale recovery plan, they defer to the salmon recovery plan. And the folks representing the salmon recovery plan basically said, "We do nothing to take killer whales into account."

But maybe I should back up a little bit. Is the link between Southern Residents and Chinook salmon as obvious as I think it is? It is now common knowledge that Chinook are the predominant prey item for the resident orcas, making up more than 90% of their diet during the summer months. Evidence from a small number of prey samples in the winter also indicate that Chinook remain an important food source year-round. But when I attended a lecture this fall given by NOAA management, they made a statement that floored me: there is no evidence that survival or recovery of the Southern Residents is more strongly linked to any particular Chinook salmon stock than to a coast-wide Chinook abundance index. They recognize a correlation that has been published by John Ford linking Southern Resident population numbers to a coast-wide Chinook abundance index, but again haven't found links between Southern Resident life statistics and any particular salmon runs.

I should take a moment to say that I do not have anything against NOAA. I believe the people there are passionate about these whales and their recovery, and they have done a lot to add to our knowledge of these whales - for instance, the information on year-round Southern Resident diet comes from work done by NOAA scientists. But their hands are also tied, to some extent. They have to try to balance pressures from multiple interest groups when working on recovery plans, and they only back up any recovery measures with scientific data. Just like how we all "knew" Southern Residents were spending the winter months on the outer coast, we couldn't prove it until they were satellite tagged - and that hard data proves instrumental for things such as keeping these whales protected when NOAA is petitioned for their de-listing, as happened in 2013 by a group of California farmers. So it was shocking to me that what I assumed was an undeniable link between Southern Residents and Fraser River Chinook apparently has not been demonstrated scientifically, which is what I heard from the NOAA management.

I took this as a bit of a personal challenge. Working with a friend of mine, Reed College student Michael Weiss, we created some spreadsheets of data to test out my assumptions about the relationship of Southern Resident survival and Fraser River Chinook. Here's what we found:

NOTE: These are not complete or perfect statistical analyses and should not be taken as such. These are first-stab attempts at looking at these numbers by biologists who are not mathematicians. These results have not been reviewed or endorsed by anyone.

1. The Fraser River follows different trends than coast-wide salmon numbers.

Coastwide Chinook salmon abundance (including California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska) is indicated in blue and referencing the left Y-axis. This data was compiled by Jane Cogan from Pacific Salmon Commission and Pacific Fishery Management Council reports. The orange line indicates Fraser River terminal run size (including spring, summer, and fall Chinook runs) and references the right Y-axis. This data was also compiled by Jane Cogan using NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NWFSC-123 for 1980-2010 and Pacific Salmon Commission data for 2011-2013. There is not a statistically significant correlation between coast-wide Chinook abundance and Fraser River terminal run size (ANOVA, p > .05).

2. Southern Resident Killer Whale birth rates are significantly correlated with summer Fraser River Chinook numbers; birth rates are not significantly correlated with coast-wide Chinook abundance.

Southern Resident Killer Whale birth rate compared to average Albion CPUE for June-August from 1980-2014. Birth rate was calculated from Center for Whale Research data as number of births per number of reproductive females per year, where a reproductive female was defined as any female between the ages of 11 (youngest documented mother) and 42 (oldest documented mother) who did not have a calf the previous year. There is a statistically significant relationship between birth rate and June-August average Albion CPUE (ANOVA, p = .026).

3. Southern Resident Killer Whale death rates are significantly correlated with coast-wide Chinook abundance; death rates are not significantly correlated with Fraser River summer Chinook numbers.

Southern Resident Killer Whale death rates compared to coast-wide Chinook abundance from 1980-2013. Death rates were calculated from Center for Whale Research data as number of deaths per total number of whales alive at any time during a given calendar year. Coast-wide Chinook numbers were compiled by Jane Cogan from the sources mentioned above and cover California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska Chinook stocks.. There is a statistically significant correlation between coast-wide Chinook numbers and SRKW death rate (ANOVA, p = .020)

Additionally, it is important to mention the recent publication (August 2014) of a peer-reviewed paper by L. Antonio Velez-Espino et al. in the journal Aquatic Conservation entitled "Relative importance of chinook salmon abundance on resident killer whale population growth and viability". You can read the abstract here, where with proper permissions you can also download the complete paper. This study compares resident killer whale survival probability and fecundity rates to Chinook salmon abundance partitioned by geographic region and found some similar results: significant relationships between Southern Resident killer whale fecundity and Puget Sound and Fraser River salmon abundances, and significant relationships between more coast-wide metrics and survivability. I should point out that this paper conducts more robust statistical analyses than are undertaken in this blog post, including taking population age-structure into account when measuring fecundity and survivability. (This is important, because 40 year old whales aren't as likely to give birth as 20 year old whales, and 70 year old whales are more likely to die than 10 year old whales. What is key to note is that with these more accurate tests, they come up with the same general conclusions.)

Velez-Espino et al. went on to conduct population viability analyses for the Southern Residents under different management scenarios, manipulating potential restrictions or allowances of fishery harvests to determine if fishery management could potentially have large enough impacts on salmon abundance to influence Southern Resident survivability and fecundity. They conclude that the interaction effects of fisheries management on Southern Resident vital rates are small and that restricting fisheries may not be an effective management action.

At first glance, I could see this seeming to some like an outrageous statement. Certainly managing fishing to allow there to be more fish for the whales should result in the whales being more likely to survive. But this may in fact not be the case - recall that the scientific panel convened by NOAA and DFO several years ago came to the same conclusion, that regulating fisheries wouldn't help Southern Residents. Here's why: 

There aren't nearly as many fish as there used to be.

Historic Chinoook salmon numbers (as presented by Jim Myers of NWFSC from sourced dated between 1880-1920) compared to present (2012 data from Pacific Salmon Commission and Pacific Fishery Management Council reports compiled by the author) Chinook salmon numbers for several major west coast rivers and regions. Klamath River historic data averages two different conflicting reports.

For the most part, Chinook salmon numbers are a small fraction of what they used to be. And fisheries only harvest a small percentage of current salmon returns. This means that when we're talking about the number of fish being taken by fisheries, we're talking about a pretty small number of fish, especially relative to historic salmon levels. Taking this into consideration, I don't think it's surprising that fisheries aren't projected to have a large enough impact on the number of fish available to the whales to impact their viability at a population level. While restricting or closing fisheries would result in more fish for the whales, I think what these analyses really tell us is that it still wouldn't yield enough fish. We need to do something more, something bigger, to recover salmon numbers.

So, where do we go from here?

I wish I had all the answers, but I don't. As I've learned more about regional salmon issues, I've learned how amazingly complex the issue is, transcending international and state boundaries, multiple special interest groups, public and private land management, etc., etc. However, I hope that going forward we can acknowledge:

• The viability of the Southern Residents is linked to particular salmon stocks
• Salmon numbers are too low, even when the phenomenon of "shifting baselines" leads to the heralding of "record" salmon runs
• Managing fisheries alone isn't enough to yield enough fish for the Southern Residents
• Something big needs to happen to help boost salmon numbers

The need for action can't all be laid on NOAA's shoulders. The Fraser River is admittedly out of their jurisdiction. While there is a petition pending to extend Southern Resident critical habitat to include the outer coast, the fact of the matter is the designation of critical habitat doesn't do anything to support recovery or replenishing of resources within that habitat - it only instigates that future permitting within the critical habitat must consult the endangered species recovery plan. I've come to believe that they simply don't have the tools on their own to instigate the kind of efforts we need to see happen. While I hope they do play a major role in regional salmon recovery efforts on behalf of the whales, we, as concerned citizens, can't just sit around and wait for that to happen. This article is meant to help ignite the conversation of what we can do to help make sure that it happens.

One perfect opportunity to be a part of the ongoing discussion comes later this month. On Saturday, October 25th at Friday Harbor High School, The Whale Museum and the Salish Sea Association of Marine Naturalists are hosting a workshop on this exact issue. What can we do to make sure real action gets taken to help boost Chinook salmon numbers for the particular stocks that are vital to the Southern Residents? I hope to see you there.

[Disclaimer: I was not asked by any group or person to compile this information, do these analyses, or write this article, nor did I receive any compensation of any sort for doing so. I am simply a concerned citizen trying to do my part to discover why these whales are declining, figure out what I can do to help, and inspire others to do the same. Additionally, the statistical tests here have not been peer-reviewed and should not be considered perfect analyses by any means. They should be taken as best efforts by two non-mathematicians and hopefully a starting point for future discussion.]

September 6th: Five Epic Hours of Whales and Wildlife at Lime Kiln

With word the night before that all three pods were inbound from the ocean, I knew I should get out to Lime Kiln early on the morning of Saturday, September 6th. When I got out to the park at about 7:00, it was one of those blissfully peaceful mornings, so calm you can hear the porpoises breathing. I was sitting on the rocks about half an hour after arriving listening to those soft exhalations: Pfft.......Pfft. Suddenly, I heard a different noise. Faint - far away - but distinct. Kawoof! That was no porpoise!

It was pretty magical for me to hear the orcas before I  saw them. After hearing two breaths, I started scanning to the south and spotted a dorsal fin a mile or so away, but heading north towards me! Fighting an ebb tide, it took this first small group of whales a looonnnng time to get to Lime Kiln. When the first one finally arrived, I wasn't too surprised to see it was J2 Granny!

J2 Granny surfaces in the beautiful early morning light off Lime Kiln

Not far behind Granny were J16 Slick and her son J26 Mike. I could see more blows to the south, but very spread out, and when Mike stopped to forage for a while off Lime Kiln it was clear the whales weren't in any hurry to go anywhere. Eventually, over the next two hours, the rest of J-Pod "Group A" came by heading north: the rest of the J16s, the J14s, the J19s, and L87 Onyx:

L87 Onyx - look at that reflection of the dorsal fin!

Whales were visible pretty much all the time, but in the gaps when there weren't any close, there was so much other wildlife to look at it! It was just all around a very photogenic morning.

The first rays of sunlight on Lime Kiln Lighthouse

A belted kingfisher - the best photo I've ever gotten of one in flight!

The harbor seal action was incredible, too. There were at least three seals fishing right off the park throughout the morning, and they caught at least three large fish throughout the morning.

Harbor seal with a fish. He was looking at me with eyes like he thought I might steal it from him! The water looks so gray because this was before the sun really came up over the island - it was early!

Two harbor seals - much nicer lighting after the sun arrived!

A little early morning yoga, harbor seal style!

Once Group A had continued north in their ones and twos, which took until almost 10 AM, I could see a lot of blows all at once off Land Bank to the south. Yesss!! Who could this be? Turns out it was all of Group B (J11s, J17s, J22s) traveling together, most of them right along the shoreline!

Photographer and whales - the best of shore-based whale-watching!

I love this shot because it shows just how close to shore the whales come! When you see them appearing over or around the rocks, you know you're a few moments away from an incredible treat!

Not only were they close, the lighting couldn't have been better! I've spent a lot of early mornings on the west side this summer without seeing anything, but this one panning out made it all worth it!

I've gotten photos of orcas and harbor seals in the same shot when I've been on a boat, but this was the first time I had a chance to take a shot like this from shore! Usually the harbor seals are on the rocks behind the whales, but this time the harbor seal is in the foreground!

The lighting was such that you could see the whales underwater as they swam past, truly one of the most magical experiences. Unfortunately the surface was just a bit too disturbed to get clear underwater photos, but it still led to some neat abstract shots. I really like photos like this, though I've learned over the years that unless you've looked at as many whales and whale photos as I have, it's not always clear what you're seeing! Here's one showing just the head of the whale underwater, and you're seeing the white chin, white eye patch, and the beginning of her exhalation:

Here's the next photo in the sequence to help you better visualize what you're seeing:

Here's another set of three shots where you can see a whale underwater, right before she comes up and surfaces onto the back of the whale in front of her!

Then in this one even I'm not sure of what all is visible in terms of how many whales or which body parts you're seeing, but I like it anyway! I do see the head of one whale in the middle, right above the ripple across the middle of the photo. That whale is "upside down" compared to the ones in the photos above.

Not only was the light amazing for seeing under water, it was perfect above water, too! How about this "rainblow" from J32 Rhapsody?

A beautiful "rainblow" from J32 Rhapsody

Two whales were trailing just a minute or two behind the main group, and all of a sudden they raced by to catch up. It was J28 Polaris and J46 Star.

J28 Polaris

At this time I wasn't even sure if all three pods had made it in, or stayed in for that matter. But when all of Js had gone by, I was still seeing blows to the south, so I knew somebody else was here! About 20 minutes after the Js came the K14s. As is always the case on these epic passbys, as soon as they had passed, the next set of whales was approaching. Following the K14s were the K12s, and then the K13s in three spread out groups of their own. The final two whales to pass were K20 Spock and K38 Comet.

K20 Spock and K38 Comet

When all of Ks had gone by (we're talking about a little over 4 hours of whales slowly passing by at this point), there were still more blows to the south! These whales (they had to be Ls, by the process of elimination, as everyone else but three K-Pod whales had been sen at this point) were milling, and while I waited to see if they would make their way up, the harbor seals continued to entertain.

It looked like the seals were catching salmon:

I'm not sure if these two both saw the same fish at the same time or what, but they proceeded to fight over one good sized fish right in front of me!

The action was happening so fast I was just clicking the shutter with no real idea of what I was capturing, but it was a real treat to go home and look through my pictures later! Here's one seal lunging out of the water right at the other:

And my gem seal shot of the day, one of the seals completely submerged underwater but visible holding a very tattered salmon in his mouth!

In the end, the whales to the south turned and went back south, but I couldn't complain! After five hours and more than five hundred photos at Lime Kiln, it had truly been an epic morning. Ultimately Js and Ks continued north to the Fraser River while the 3 K-Pod whales and all of L-Pod spent their whole day off the southwest side of San Juan Island. Big news came in the afternoon, however, when the Center for Whale Research announced that they had documented a new calf, L120, born to L86 Surprise!

If you've been reading my blog throughout the summer, you've probably heard me mention that J49 Ti'lem I'nges was the last calf born to the Southern Residents - in August of 2012! We had to wait an astonishing 25 months to welcome the next new member to the population. While we were all beyond thrilled to hear about this new little one's arrival, the long drought with no babies is certainly a cause for concern. The very latest research from the Conservation Canine crew (the folks that use scat-detection dogs to  collect killer whale fecal samples for some pretty cutting edge hormone analysis) is that it looks like the whales are getting pregnant, but seem to be miscarrying, perhaps due to nutritional stress. It goes back to the very same core message: no fish, no blackfish.

The arrival of this little one was also a little bittersweet because of the family group he/she was born in to. The last whale born to L86 Surprise! (yes the exclamation point is officially part of the name) met an unfortunate fate. You can read about L112 Sooke on one of my previous blog posts here.

But I don't mean to digress too far into the sad side of things - the arrival of L120 was a very happy day! So happy that I got tears in my eyes when I heard the news. It would take a few days until I would have the opportunity to meet L120 for myself, but I would get a chance to see him/her before too long!! Stay tuned for those photos - you won't believe how small a 6 foot long, 400 pound cetacean can look!